Probability sum

Tier: #Foundation #Higher

🔗What you need to know first
How to

All probabilities for mutually exclusive, exhaustive outcomes must sum to 1. This is one of the fundamental rules of probability.

$$P(A) + P(A') = 1 \implies P(A') = 1 - P(A)$$

where $A'$ is the complement of $A$ (the event that $A$ does not happen).

Example: The probability of rain on a given day is 0.35. The probability of no rain is: $$1 - 0.35 = 0.65$$

For multiple mutually exclusive outcomes: $$P(A) + P(B) + P(C) + \ldots = 1$$

This rule is often used to find a missing probability in a table or list.

Example: Outcomes of a spinner: red, blue, green with probabilities $0.3$, $x$, $0.25$. Find $x$. $$0.3 + x + 0.25 = 1 \implies x = 0.45$$

Common error: forgetting that only mutually exclusive and exhaustive events must sum to 1 — overlapping events do not follow this rule directly.

Questions to practise

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📝Past paper questions

2025 Jun 1H GCSE Q2 (2 marks)

2025 Jun 1H GCSE Q14 (3 marks)

2025 Jun 2H GCSE Q11 (3 marks)

2025 Jun 3H GCSE Q15 (4 marks)

2025 Jun 3H GCSE Q18 (1 mark)

2024 Nov 1H GCSE Q2 (3 marks)

2024 Jun 1H GCSE Q4 (1 mark)

2024 Jun 1H GCSE Q16 (2 marks)

2024 Jun 2H GCSE Q18 (5 marks)

2024 Jun 3H GCSE Q6 (2 marks)

2024 Jun 3H GCSE Q10 (1 mark)

2023 Jun 1H GCSE Q5 (1 mark)

2023 Jun 1H GCSE Q12 (3 marks)

2023 Jun 2H GCSE Q10 (3 marks)

2023 Jun 2H GCSE Q22 (2 marks)

2023 Nov 3H GCSE Q2 (2 marks)

2023 Nov 3H GCSE Q16 (1 mark)

2022 Nov 1H GCSE Q10 (1 mark)

2022 Jun 1H GCSE Q11 (1 mark)

2022 Jun 1H GCSE Q16 (4 marks)

2022 Nov 3H GCSE Q19 (2 marks)

2022 Jun 3H GCSE Q21 (4 marks)

2021 Nov 3H GCSE Q6 (4 marks)

2021 Nov 3H GCSE Q20 (2 marks)

2020 Nov 1H GCSE Q14 (1 mark)

2020 Nov 2H GCSE Q2 (2 marks)

2020 Nov 3H GCSE Q8 (2 marks)

2019 Jun 1H GCSE Q1 (4 marks)

2019 Nov 1H GCSE Q10 (1 mark)

2019 Nov 1H GCSE Q11 (2 marks)

2019 Jun 1H GCSE Q22 (3 marks)

2019 Jun 2H GCSE Q10 (2 marks)

2019 Nov 2H GCSE Q16 (3 marks)

2019 Jun 3H GCSE Q1 (1 mark)

2019 Nov 3H GCSE Q11 (3 marks)

2019 Nov 3H GCSE Q21 (2 marks)

2018 Jun 1H GCSE Q16 (2 marks)

2018 Nov 1H GCSE Q22 (2 marks)

2018 Nov 2H GCSE Q1 (1 mark)

2018 Jun 2H GCSE Q8 (2 marks)

2018 Jun 2H GCSE Q15 (1 mark)

2018 Nov 2H GCSE Q16 (4 marks)

2018 Jun 3H GCSE Q4 (1 mark)

2018 Jun 3H GCSE Q6 (1 mark)

2018 Jun 3H GCSE Q20 (2 marks)

2017 Jun 1H GCSE Q17 (3 marks)

2017 Jun 2H GCSE Q1 (3 marks)

2017 Nov 2H GCSE Q4 (1 mark)

2017 Jun 2H GCSE Q12 (1 mark)

2017 Jun 3H GCSE Q1 (1 mark)

2017 Nov 3H GCSE Q8 (3 marks)

2017 Nov 3H GCSE Q10 (2 marks)

2017 Nov 3H GCSE Q12 (3 marks)

💬What the examiners say
  • "Students should not miss the words 'at least' in the question and must consider being late on both days as well as exactly one day."
  • "Using a tree diagram was the most successful method seen which often led to at least one mark."
  • "It should be emphasised to students that each number in the universal set should appear just once in a Venn diagram and it might be advisable for students to cross off numbers as they are being added to the Venn diagram."
⬆️How you can quickly improve
  • Write the rule before you start: multiply along a single branch (AND), add across separate branches (OR).
  • Underline the key probability phrase before doing anything — 'at least one', 'exactly', 'no more than' each point to a different approach.
  • After filling in the probability tree, check that every pair of branches from the same node adds to exactly 1.
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